Bangladesh's export earnings fell for the third consecutive month in October, dropping 7.43% year-on-year, raising concerns among exporters that shipments may continue to decline in the coming months due to political uncertainty, higher US tariffs, and ongoing banking troubles.
Goods worth $3.63 billion were exported in October, down from $4.13 billion in the same month last year, according to data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). Although exports rose slightly compared to September, the overall trend remains negative.
Exporters say a combination of factors – including election-related uncertainty at home, higher US tariffs, and rising Chinese competition in Europe – has dampened demand for Bangladeshi goods. The country's ongoing banking sector crisis has further complicated export operations.
They warn that the outlook for the next few months remains bleak.
DBL Group, one of Bangladesh's top exporters with annual exports of nearly $1 billion, has also seen a noticeable drop in new orders in recent months.
"Our orders are much lower than before. Even some major buyers have reduced their orders," MA Rahim Feroz, vice-chairman of DBL Group, told The Business Standard. "As a result, our knitting and dyeing units now have less work. We don't see the order flow improving until the election is over."
About 85% of Bangladesh's total exports come from the apparel sector, with nearly half of those shipments destined for the European Union. The United States remains the largest single export market, accounting for around 20% of total exports.
EPB data show that garment exports fell 8.39% in October compared to the same month a year earlier.
Md Shehab Udduza Chowdhury, vice-president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and managing director of Amity Design Limited, attributed the fall to three major factors: concerns among buyers about election-related instability, the impact of higher US tariffs pushing Chinese exporters toward Europe, and difficulties in opening back-to-back letters of credit due to the banking crisis.
"Buyers have slightly reduced their orders ahead of the February election because they don't want to take full risk," he said. "Meanwhile, Chinese exporters, facing higher tariffs in the US, are now aggressively targeting the European market – which is shrinking our share there."
Other exporters echoed similar concerns, particularly about the banking situation.
They said after the government announced plans to merge several troubled banks, many depositors rushed to withdraw funds, leaving those banks short on liquidity.
As a result, suppliers are reluctant to accept back-to-back LCs issued by such banks, and garment manufacturers are struggling to open new ones.
"It's not easy for an exporter to simply switch to another bank," one exporter noted.
According to EPB data, except for July, exports fell for three consecutive months – August, September, and October.
Still, during the July-October period of FY2025-26, Bangladesh's total exports stood at $16.14 billion, up 2.22% from $15.79 billion in the same period last year, thanks to a strong start in July.
Besides garments, exports of frozen and live fish fell by 13%, plastic goods by 12%, and agricultural products by 10% in October.
In contrast, leather and leather goods exports grew by 13%, jute and jute goods by 7%, and home textiles by 14%.